Cliff Mitchell, Staffs4Europe - 24/10/2019

4 Brexit Myths


4 Brexit Myths

Everyone says they know what the public think about Brexit – here’s the polling data that tells you who’s right.

 

 

Myth 1:

“Voters are so fed up with the whole process that they just want to get Brexit done.”

Myth 1Not true! Recent surveys asked voters whether they agreed with the statement, “I don’t care how or on what terms Britain leaves the EU as long as we leave as soon as possible.” Just one in three said they did.

Just because it keeps getting repeated, doesn't make it true.

Don't believe the myths. Get the Facts. #StopBrexit

 

Myth 2:

"Voters haven't changed their minds since 2016!"Myth 2

An average of recent surveys shows a steady 53-47% preference for Remain. This represents a five-point swing to Remain since 2016. Few general elections produce bigger swings than this. Don't believe the myths. Get the Facts. #StopBrexit

 


Myth 3:

"In a repeat referendum Leave would win again!"

Myth 3Two and a half million teenagers have reached voting age since 2016. Although turnout in this age group tends to be low, those that would vote are overwhelmingly in favour of wanting Britain to stay in the EU.

Over the same period, two million Britons have died. Older voters divided two-to-one in favour of Brexit in 2016.

Taking these two demographic factors together, and allowing for turnout differences, a referendum today would result in 600-700,000 more Remain voters and 800-900,000 fewer Leave voters – even if not a single person changed their mind (see previous myth: there has actually been a 5% swing to Remain). As the Leave majority three years ago was just under 1.3 million, this means that a referendum today would produce a Remain majority on demographic factors alone.

Don't believe the myths. Get the Facts. #StopBrexit

Myth 4:

"Voters don't want another referendum!"Myth 4

A recent YouGov survey showed 52 per cent of the public believe the final decision to leave the EU with no deal should be made in another referendum, compared with 23 per cent who think it should be taken by MPs in Parliament, with 25 per cent saying “don’t know”. If there is an agreed deal with the EU 47 per cent of people still favour the final decision between leaving on the agreed terms or staying in the EU being left to the public in another vote. Only 29 per cent theought the decision should be left to MPs.

Don't believe the myths. Get the Facts. #StopBrexit

Credits

Cliff Mitchell, Staffs4Europe based on an article by Peter Kellner in The Independent on Thursday 10 October 2019
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